McCain's Hispanic problem
by kos
Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:20:24 AM PDT
Earlier I wrote about the startling Pew poll showing Latinos breaking for Obama at a 66-23 clip. Jonathan Singer over at MyDD crunched some state-level numbers, and the results are also startling.
And in case you don't think these numbers matter, think again. Just look at McCain's home state of Arizona -- where McCain has been forced to campaign. If McCain were only able to manage 22 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona, just doing the math he'd have to pull in about 63 percent of the White, Asian-American and "other" vote in the state to reach the 50 percent marker (Jon Kyl received about 55 percent of the White vote in his 10-point reelection victory in 2006, for reference).
Bush managed 59 percent of the Arizona white vote in 2004, per the exit polls. He also got 43 percent of the Latino vote in the state.
This is just one state, Arizona, a state that McCain should win. Now extrapolate these numbers across the country, particularly in other states with large Hispanic voting blocs, and you see McCain's immense problem. If the 22 percent mark were to hold in a state like Texas, and Obama were to receive a respectable though not shockingly high 90 percent of the African-American vote, McCain would need to pull in close to 60 percent of the remaining vote to earn a majority of the overall vote.
Go down the list of swing states with large Hispanic populations -- Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, and you see that right off the bat, McCain faces some serious structural disadvantages in losing this vote by so much. Throw in states with large African American plus Latino populations -- Georgia (59 percent non-Hispanic white), North Carolina (68 percent non-Hispanic white), Virginia (68 percent non-Hispanic white), and Mississippi (59 percent non-Hispanic white) -- and suddenly you have a whole swath of states, with a great deal of electoral votes, in reach by Democrats because of McCain's inability to garner the brown vote.
And that's just this year. Long term, of course, the situation is even more dire for the Republican Party.
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