OR-Sen: Tomorrow is primary day in Oregon and Kentucky, and at this point, it's quite unclear as to who our nominee for U.S. Senate will be in Oregon. Democrats Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley are vying for the nomination, and polling shows them neck-and-neck with a good bit of the electorate undecided. We'll be covering the results from the primary as they come in tomorrow; visit Blue Oregon and Loaded Orygun for some local color on this race.

KY-Sen: In Kentucky, meanwhile, Bruce Lunsford is the frontrunner to win the Democratic primary over Greg Fischer. Recent polling has Fischer rising, but trailing Lunsford by a wide margin.

NC-Sen: More evidence that Democratic State Sen. Kay Hagan has a legitimate chance of taking out Elizabeth Dole: Dole has recently changed her campaign manager, in the wake of Hagan's impressive victory in the Democratic primary and subsequent polls showing her highly competitive with Dole.

Best of all, as Senate Guru notes, Dole's new head honcho, Marty Ryall, has a lousy track record, having most recently guided gubernatorial candidate Bill Graham to a third-place finish with a lofty 9% of the vote in the North Carolina primary. Sounds like a real winner, Liddy.

MN-Sen: Here's some good polling news for the GOP (they've had very little of late, as Kos writes). Norm Coleman (R) leads Al Franken in Minnesota, 51% to 44%, indicating that while Minnesota is most competitive indeed, the race does lean Coleman's way. Franken's had a bad month, probably his worst since beginning his campaign, so hopefully he'll be able to recover nicely over the next few months.

MT-Sen: Per jockyoung's diary, someone is now push-polling against Senator Max Baucus in Montana. Judging by the nature of the call ("taxes! bad!"), it sounds as though it's the GOP, apparently hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle here. I think they're wasting their damn time and money in Montana; Baucus is popular, and they have a deeply flawed candidate in Mike Lange. Still, I suppose it's understandable; they have so few pickup opportunities in the Senate this cycle that I guess they have to roll the dice on super long shots.

House GOP: NRCC Chairman Tom Cole has taken some criticism for refusing to get involved in Republican primaries for House seats, despite the results of the special elections in Illinois' 14th District and Louisiana's 6th District.

In both cases, Republican primary voters nominated a controversial candidate with high negatives-Jim Oberweis in Illinois, Woody Jenkins in Louisiana-and it is likely that the specific weaknesses of those two candidates may have cost the Republicans one or both of those seats.

Nevertheless, Cole maintains that he will not interfere in GOP primaries:

"I’m not reconsidering the NRCC’s approach," Cole said. "We could make a lot of errors, and at this point the last thing a candidate would want is to be the hand-picked candidate of Washington, D.C."

That's perfectly fair, even honorable. But strategically, given recent history, it may be a bad idea to entrust the fate of the GOP House minority to the hard-core righties who vote in primary election.

Meanwhile, rumors are still swirling about Cole's job security. The long knives are out in the GOP caucus, with prominent members quietly alluding to an ouster:

House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio has been among Cole's harshest critics during his tenure at the NRCC, but Boehner, who could also take the fall if the GOP is routed at the polls in November, is not the only voice in a chorus of complaints.

"Some people have said to Tom 'It's time to submit your resignation,'" said Rep. Mike Simpson of Idaho, who is close to Boehner. "I think we need a change."

To be honest, I can't see Cole stepping down. First off, the GOP woes aren't really Cole's fault, or not his fault alone; and second, who would take the job? That's a hot mess for anyone who touches it.

NH-01: After initially opting against doing so, New Hampshire Democrat Carol Shea-Porter has decided to join the DCCC's frontline program, after apparently realizing that the GOP was going to go hard and negative this cycle, and that she would need money to fight them.

While she will have DCCC assistance this cycle, Shea-Porter is still one of the more endangered Democratic incumbents in the country, facing a tough and well-financed opponent in Jeb Bradley.

OR-05: Primary day is tomorrow, and Republican Mike Erickson, still claiming not to know what cocaine looks like, appears to have blown his chance at winning the primary. This ought to leave rock-ribbed conservative Kevin Mannix as the presumptive GOP nominee, which isn't bad in a slightly Democratic-leaning district.

FL-18, FL-21, FL-25: Miller-McCune has a good article on these three races in particular, and the changing political dynamics in Florida's Cuban-American community in general.

But this year promises to be different. Three Cuban-American Republican members of Congress — incumbent stalwarts of a crucial GOP electoral stronghold in this swing state — have strong Democratic challengers. Those challengers — two Cuban Americans and a Colombian American — appear to have at least remote chances of winning.

The trifecta of congressional contests and Fidel Castro's recent resignation will likely bring the United States' controversial 47-year-old Cuba embargo under more scrutiny than usual. They will also bring a largely unacknowledged reality into public view: The extreme perspectives that once characterized the Cuban émigré community of South Florida — and that all but forced presidential candidates of both parties, eager to win Florida's electoral votes, to swear allegiance to the continued isolation of Cuba — are changing. Older émigrés still by and large fiercely advocate for the trade embargo and travel ban, but newer arrivals from Cuba have less hard-line views on relations with the island.

Will Democratic challengers in the three "Cuban" congressional districts of South Florida loosen the stranglehold that old-line anti-Castroism has had on presidential politics and Cuba policy? That's a question that can be answered only in the by zantine maze of Little Havana politics.

Our three Democratic challengers here are Annette Taddeo in FL-18, Raul Martinez in FL-21, and Blue Majority candidate Joe Garcia in FL-25.

VT-AL: Freshman Democrat Peter Welch, who won a nine-point victory in 2006, is as yet unopposed in his reelection bid. Apparently, all the Vermont Republicans would rather run for State House:

"You can run for a (state) House seat and raise $8,000 or $10,000 or go out and raise a million bucks" to run for Congress, Roper said. "We need to return a balance of power to the Statehouse. It's gotten really out of whack."

Davis said any credible Republican candidate would have to be willing to put up his or her own money and consider themselves a "sacrificial lamb" for the party.

Boy, THAT sounds inspiring for the national GOP.

VA-02: We have a very interesting candidate in this district, former Foreign Service officer and international affairs expert Glenn Nye. Nye takes on two-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake, who barely survived an exceptionally strong challenge from Democrat Phil Kellam in 2006.

Polling shows Nye could be competitive against Drake this year. Drake is under 50% against Nye, leading him 48% to 32%, which is not bad given her advantage in name recognition. However, given a brief bio of both candidates, Nye leads 49% to 40%.

I usually don't place much stock in "bio polls", as they're reliant on candidates actually being able to make voters familiar with their background and stances. But Nye has been a successful enough fundraiser that he may well be able to do that, and a nine-point lead is considerable even for such a poll.