Senate Races

TX-Sen: Kos wrote earlier about the shocking polling numbers out of Texas. Rasmussen indicates a slim four-point lead for John Cornyn, with Cornyn receiving 47% to 43% for Democratic challenger and Blue Majority candidate Rick Noriega. If the poll is accurate, it's fantastic news for Democrats.

Noriega still trails badly in the money race-he has just $300,000 on hand, compared to Cornyn's formidable $8 million war chest, so feel free to drop by the Blue Majority page and show Noriega some love.

NH-Sen: Yet another poll-the Granite State Poll-shows Jeanne Shaheen with a wide lead over incumbent John Sununu. Sununu has a cash advantage, but he remains the most endangered incumbent in the Senate. The House races in NH-01 and NH-02 were also polled; more on that below.

MN-Sen: Now for the bad poll news; the ever-reliable SurveyUSA shows Al Franken trailing Republican incumbent Norm Coleman by 10 points, 52% to 42%. This is lousy news, coming on the heels of reports that Franken owes $70K in back taxes. Franken has done quite well in fundraising so far; it may be a good time to start spending some of that money in order to start closing this gap.

NC-Sen: The day before the North Carolina primary, Kay Hagan holds a wide lead over Jim Neal in the U.S. Senate primary, 42% to 17%. Expect her to be the nominee against Elizabeth Dole.

VA-Sen: Mark Warner kicked off his Senate campaign today. He should cruise to victory over Republican Jim Gilmore, as he is dominating in both polling and fundraising. In fact, the best Republicans can say about this race is "well, maybe it's not macaca-proof".

Even Republicans acknowledge that Mark R. Warner is considered the heavy favorite. But, they say, he could still lose.

He could make a mistake the way then-Sen. George Allen did two years ago when he lost to a virtual unknown. He could be hurt by problems in the Democratic Party nationally in the coming months. He could be dragged down by his party's presidential nominee in a state that has voted for a Republican president for more than four decades.

"It can be done," said J. Kenneth Klinge, a prominent Northern Virginia Republican. "But it's going to take some luck."

House Races

NH-01, NH-02: Good news and bad news from the Granite State Poll. The good news is that Second District incumbent Paul Hodes (D) holds a wide lead over both his challengers, and is over 50% against both.

The bad news is that First District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears to be in serious trouble. Against former Rep. Jeb Bradley, whom she defeated in 2006, Shea-Porter actually trails by six points, 45% to 39%. Against the other Republican in the race, John Stephen, Shea-Porter leads 43% to 35%, but she is still well under 50%.

Shea-Porter surprised a lot of people in 2006, and overcame similarly bad polling numbers, but she is still one of the more endangered Democratic incumbents in the country.

NJ-03: Happy news from New Jersey's Third District; registered Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans in the district. The Third already votes like a lean-Dem district; Gore won NJ-03 by 11 points and Kerry narrowly lost it, 51-49. Best of all, we have an open-seat race featuring a terrific Democratic challenger in John Adler, who has over $1 million cash-on-hand and has already made the DCCC's Red to Blue list.

FL-13, FL-15: Two news items of note from last week's filing deadline in Florida. First, in the 13th District, Jan Schneider, who lost two previous races in the general election and one in the Democratic primary, is gearing up for a fourth run at the seat-as an independent.

She had considered running as a Democrat again, but apparently the national party sided with 2006 candidate Christine Jennings (no surprise, given that Jennings came within 400 votes of winning). So Schneider has decided to play Ralph Nader.

On the bright side, Dems have another serious candidate in the 15th District, home of the retiring Dave Weldon, in the person of former Air Force Lt. Col. Paul Rancatore.

More good news from Florida; there are now more Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans in the state. Our progress with this key demographic is wonderful to see, especially as there are nine House races in the state which are expected to be somewhat competitive (in the 8th, 9th, 15th, 16th, 18th, 21st, 22nd, 24th and 25th Districts). And oh, yeah, there are 27 electoral votes at stake, too.